According to relevant data, in 2023, the new scale of distributed photovoltaics will reach 96GW, which is the total new number of distributed photovoltaics in the three years from 2020 to 2022. With the rapid expansion of the market scale, new opportunities and challenges are also coming unexpectedly. . Against this background, the "Seventh China Distributed Photovoltaic Conference" jointly sponsored by Photovoltaics, Photovoltaic Box, and Chenghua Energy, and co-organized by Tongwei Co., Ltd. was successfully held in Jinan, Shandong Province from February 27th to 28th.
This conference brings together outstanding domestic and foreign industry data analysts, first-tier photovoltaic companies, national outstanding EPCs, photovoltaic investors, photovoltaic developers, new energy financing institutions and other outstanding photovoltaic practitioners to discuss the huge opportunities and many challenges faced by distributed photovoltaics in China. challenges and explore more market opportunities. A total of nearly 10,000 people participated in this conference online and offline.
During the speech at the conference, Peng Fei, President of the Shandong Solar Energy Industry Association, said that as of the end of 2023, the cumulative installed capacity of wind and solar in Shandong Province has exceeded 82GW, of which photovoltaic continues to lead the country with 57GW, while distributed power has reached nearly 41GW. . In the next step, Shandong Province will guide the industry towards a more healthy and stable development path in terms of photovoltaic development quality and efficiency, energy storage, and grid consumption.
Distributed photovoltaic trend outlook
The new scale of photovoltaics in 2023 will reach the total of the past four years, and distributed photovoltaics has also achieved relatively impressive development results. Regarding China's distributed photovoltaic market trends, Zhuge, chief analyst of Photovoltaic Box, introduced that from 2020 to 2022, the mainstream model of the domestic household photovoltaic market will gradually shift from loans to leasing models. In 2022, the roof leasing model will account for more than 75%. In the competitive landscape of the household photovoltaic market, central state-owned enterprises mainly focus on asset acquisitions in the short and medium term, and will develop towards EPC+ investment and joint venture models in the long term. Self-owned asset packages are the mainstream business model of private enterprises, which are gradually developing asset-light through asset sales, joint ventures, EPC and other models.The development achievements in 2023 have made industry people full of expectations for the future, but at the same time, new challenges are also coming unexpectedly. Zhang Xiaobin, executive vice president and secretary-general of the Shandong Solar Energy Industry Association, pointed out that the distributed photovoltaic market may undergo major changes in 2024, from grid consumption to power market transactions, from distribution and storage to time-of-use electricity price changes, etc. Some patterns create impact.From the perspective of the power grid, the adjustable and controllable distributed photovoltaic will become the focus of the power grid's management and control of the distributed industry, and power generation restrictions may become the norm in the future; judging from the entry of distributed photovoltaic into power market transactions, Shandong is already following The specific ratio is still under discussion. From a market perspective, excess business fees have devoured the room for profit reductions in component prices, while excessive growth has had a greater impact on the power grid. Investing companies must provide benefits to the power grid through distribution and storage, transformer expansion, etc., in exchange for more Broad space for development.From the perspective of distribution and storage, centralized convergence, Taiwan energy storage and cloud storage are all good development ideas. Although each has its own advantages and disadvantages, we cannot give up the development of new models. Who will master more energy storage peak shaving in the future? Resources may mean having more photovoltaic development resources. From the perspective of investment companies, the increased uncertainty in distributed photovoltaics has caused some central enterprises to reduce their investment proportions. Judging from the filing status in the past two months, local urban investment companies have become the current main force.But no matter how the market changes, participants should still try their best to be prepared. The transfer of popular areas due to limited consumption is temporary. As the scale of installed capacity continues to increase, each province will still return to the same "horizontal line". Who will be first? Whoever can run through new models under difficult conditions or master new ideas for layout is likely to win in future competitions.Fang Sichun, an excellent analyst at InfoLink, said that the total volume of TOPcon last year reached 126GW; the challenge of heterojunction shipments last year was the decline in costs; and BC products have high technical difficulty, and production capacity is concentrated in leading companies. For this year, TOPcon’s market share is expected to reach about 70%, while PERC’s market share will drop to 20%. BC and heterojunction have stable growth rates and have the opportunity to reach about 4-5 points. It is also predicted that the total demand for components this year will reach about 486-530GW.With the rapid growth of photovoltaic scale, mining of massive data and information generated during station operation has gradually become the focus of the industry. Zhang Kun, Director of New Energy Business Development of Ant Group's Digital Technology Line Strategic Account Department, believes that tracking the carbon footprint and carbon emission limits of photovoltaic products is gradually becoming a common global requirement, and digitization can cover the entire industry chain of related products. Currently, there are already top 10 Component companies have reached cooperation. In addition, distributed photovoltaics are small and scattered, and the application of green certificates is difficult and complicated. However, digital green certificates are fast and convenient, and can increase the annualized income of distributed assets by about 1%.Singularity Energy Marketing Manager Su Jianfeng gave a keynote speech on the theme of empowering thousands of industries and accelerating energy transformation. He said that energy storage has become an important support for the low-carbon transformation of the power system. Singularity energy storage system solutions are based on "things- Based on the design concept of "Internet-Network", the energy block eBlock is highly integrated, energy and information are interconnected through the energy chain eLink, and energy analysis and management are performed in the cloud through the energy cloud eMind. It can realize building-block efficient and safe design from small energy storage units of 100 kWh to large energy storage power stations of GWh, solving common industry problems such as low system security, high parallel loss tolerance rate and short system life of traditional centralized energy storage solutions. Dong Dahai, deputy general manager of the National Channel of Guangying Platform and head of Shandong District, analyzed the allocation and implementation of household savings based on the country's first household storage allocation case in Dezhou, Shandong. Driven by the policy, household photovoltaics must be registered in the name of the project company. This can strengthen the management and data statistics of all power station capacities by the National Development and Reform Commission, and make certain policy decisions on all photovoltaic capacities of enterprises in the household market. restrictions and guidance. Household storage means allocating storage in Taiwan to develop the household market. He believes that the direction of household storage in the future is centralized confluence + distribution and storage. Binding energy storage with centralized return flow means that all photovoltaic power generation can be stored in peak-cutting times. Store energy and then release it.
Seize the opportunity for industrial and commercial photovoltaics
In recent years, the rapid development of the distributed photovoltaic market has made the competition in the industry very fierce. Both business development and equipment manufacturers are using all their means. However, under fierce competition, there is still a "blue ocean" hidden in industrial and commercial photovoltaics.
Kong Wei, deputy general manager of Shangmai New Energy, pointed out that judging from the development of commercial rooftops in the past few years, load problems have restricted the development of many high-quality projects, such as steel plants and coal shed plants, which can basically achieve 100% absorption. The comprehensive income is very high. Sanmai's lightweight modules are only 40% lighter than traditional conventional photovoltaic systems. The unique installation method avoids the risk of water leakage. Sinopec, Baowu and other projects have application cases, and shipments are expected to reach about 1GW in 2024.
Li Di, Solution Manager of Huawei Digital Energy Shandong Representative Office, shared Huawei's industrial and commercial optical storage and charging solutions to help thousands of industries green and low-carbon transformation in the theme report. She said that industrial and commercial photovoltaics face four major challenges: safety hazards, low power generation, high operation and maintenance costs, and complex system coordination. As a provider of integrated photovoltaic and storage solutions, Huawei has intelligent energy flow scheduling, multi-mode superposition of energy storage, and high profits. Quadruple active safety identifies safety hazards in advance and adopts one-pack-one optimization. The energy optimizer enables independent charging and discharging of battery packs to increase discharge capacity by 5%, and the optical storage system can be combined and separated to ensure continuous production and reduce electricity costs. and carbon emissions.
Ren Wanpeng, general manager of Trina Fujia North China Household Marketing Center, introduced the various application scenarios of Trina Fujia distributed photovoltaics at the meeting. Residential photovoltaics have launched double-slope roofs, including courtyards and photovoltaic garden series, which have been launched in the industrial and commercial fields. It includes industrial and commercial flat roofs, pitched roofs, Tianneng tile integration, etc. The cooperation model also includes centralized convergence solutions, household distribution and storage solutions, new rural installations, and roofs of public institutions. In addition, the concept of original standards is also proposed, that is, a brand's quality commitment and service guarantee, and a set of full-process quality control standard systems.
Multi-scenario application has always been one of the development advantages of photovoltaics. He Chuntao, director of the New Energy Application Technology Department, said that after years of development and application, flexible brackets have gradually matured and are distributed in greenhouses, vegetable gardens, orchards, aisles, ditches and other places in special scenarios. The photovoltaic and flexible brackets form a perfect combination, and its cost is significantly lower than that of traditional brackets.
As a state-owned capital investment company in the infrastructure field of Shandong Province and a Fortune 500 company, Wang Yan, deputy general manager of Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy Development Co., Ltd., said that the company fully relies on the space resources along the group's highways and builds on highway slopes and ramp circles. We are committed to building new energy power generation systems in , tunnels, sound barriers, toll stations, service areas and other scenarios, and are committed to building a green energy supply system that integrates photovoltaics and facilities along highways. We will further promote the integrated development model of transportation and energy, actively explore the construction of new energy systems for highways, and strive to build more than three zero-carbon highways during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. As of December 2023, Shandong Expressway has built photovoltaic power stations along the expressway with an installed capacity of 420 MW, ranking first in the domestic photovoltaic construction capacity along the expressway.
Advanced technology leads the industry to reduce costs and increase efficiency
Mei Wei, Director of Photovoltaic Box Operations, analyzed the installation status of many provinces last year and the development trend of industrial and commercial photovoltaics by sorting out the registration of industrial and commercial photovoltaic projects in China. The number of photovoltaic projects in 26 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions is about 76,000, with a project scale of more than 93.8 GW. Last year, the installed capacity of industrial and commercial photovoltaic was 50-60 GW, which means that many registered projects have not been installed yet, and the development trend is very obvious. Among them, micro-industrial and commercial projects below 500KW account for 58% of the registered industrial and commercial projects, 0.5-1 MW projects account for 15%, and 1-5 MW projects account for about 20%.Specific to equipment, Liu Hui, head of distributed technical support at Tongwei Photovoltaic Business Department, introduced that in 2023, Tongwei’s distributed product shipments will rank among the top three in the industry. At present, 80GW of component bases have been fully put into production, and the main product is TNC. Full size coverage, power up to 700W. Since the distributed photovoltaic scenario is more complex, more room for layout selection may increase the installed capacity. Taking 210R as an example, taking into account the compatibility of size and power, it can not only provide 4% of the installed capacity, but also save 4% of transportation costs.Facing the current trend of rapid development of distributed photovoltaics, Liu Mingyang, senior manager of Hopewang Photovoltaic Solutions Department, introduced that Hopewang inverters can achieve high-efficiency power generation without derating at 45°C through reliable heat dissipation solutions (radiator + smart fan) , ensuring the reliable operation of the inverter in high-temperature environments; through intelligent detection of safety risks, it can quickly and automatically shut down faulty units, while supporting higher capacity ratios and achieving better component layout design.Xiao Hongwei, head of Shandong Province of Aixu Co., Ltd., demonstrated the application advantages and technical advantages of Aixu ABC components. Partial shadow shading optimization technology, whether it is layout shading or dust coverage, will bring high efficiency gains in battery power generation; good high-temperature suppression technology and lower temperature coefficients can ensure the basic performance of components and adapt to more High scene. In addition, in multiple application scenarios, Aixu N-type ABC modules have improved power generation efficiency and overall gain compared to TOPcon. The value realized in various scenarios is the reduction of LCOE. Through the analysis of these entire products and technologies, Aixu can provide customers with lower LCOE.With the continuous introduction of time-of-use electricity prices in various places, the profitability of industrial and commercial energy storage has gradually become more prominent. Deng Tao, senior manager of Sungrow Power Solutions, said that about 4GWh of new industrial and commercial energy storage will be added in 2023, and it is predicted that it will double in the next few years. Based on the characteristics of industrial and commercial energy storage, Sungrow launched 400V products based on industry concerns such as price, safety, revenue, and scene adaptation. While charging and discharging efficiency is higher, it relies on the control function of the EMS cloud to achieve higher dispatch benefits.Wang Caihuai, senior product manager of Risen Energy, said in the report "Risen Energy HJT Leads New Trends in the Industry" that n-type batteries have become the inevitable replacement for p-type batteries. TOPCon currently accounts for a large proportion, and HJT’s potential will continue to explode. According to reports, Risen Energy's current products include Perc, HJT, TOPCon and other products, among which the efficiency of 210 HJT can reach 714W. Risen Energy has reduced the cost of HJT components through ultra-thin silicon wafers, low silver paste content, 0BB, new slicing solutions and industry integration. Now it can basically achieve the same price as TOPCon.Sharing experience in optical and storage projects
Dang Jihu, director of Yuneng Technology Co., Ltd., said that string inverters are very risky when used in photovoltaic buildings. Since string inverters have DC high voltages of 600V-1000V, they are prone to arcing and fires, and in the event of an accident , the high voltage at the DC end always exists and the fire cannot be extinguished. The micro-inverter is modular, so there is no high-voltage DC, and the voltage is below 120V, which naturally solves the problem of DC arcing and the risk of shutdown. From the project cases of Yuneng, we can see that overseas micro-inverters have a relatively high overseas market share and a low domestic market share.The photovoltaic industry is an asset-heavy field, and financial leasing is also an important support for the development of the industry. Wang Hongzhe, head of the North China Region of the Clean Energy Business Department of Sinopharm Leasing, said regarding industrial and commercial photovoltaic financial leasing that currently private distributed photovoltaics are dominated by financial leasing. Compared with banks, the threshold is lower, the model is flexible, and the process is shorter. Specifically, it can be divided into direct leasing and callback. There are two modes of renting, and the financing per tile is about 2.3-3 yuan. Whether it is financing or investment, Guokong Leasing can provide a full range of services.In order to cope with the pressure on the power grid caused by the rapid increase in photovoltaic installed capacity, whole village confluence is becoming a newly explored business model for distributed photovoltaics. Song Changfang, chairman of Yujin New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., pointed out in his speech that unlike traditional household photovoltaic development, which is installed and connected to the grid in the name of a natural person, the "centralized confluence" development of the entire village is to package the roofs of the entire village together. , developed and constructed uniformly by the enterprise, and connected to the grid using the "centralized convergence" model. The birth of this new model stems from the industry's strong demand for large-scale development of rural household photovoltaics. Especially after the pilot work of distributed photovoltaics is promoted throughout the county, it is more suitable for enterprises to develop rural household battlefields.However, in the implementation of the 5.99MW centralized confluence project in Xiajin Tianzhuang Village, Texas, the process was extremely complicated. "The drawings were revised 11 times, and a lot of energy was spent on resource communication." Song Changfang believes that before the construction of the whole village confluence project, it is necessary to communicate with The owner should fully communicate and clarify the installation location to avoid unnecessary losses. The installation of photovoltaics must comply with relevant regulations and policies to ensure that the nature of the photovoltaic land is compliant. When carrying out photovoltaic projects, it is important to understand the land properties, policies and requirements in detail to lay the foundation for the smooth progress of the project.Energy storage box analyst Liu Shuang said that the stage we are currently in is a stage of comprehensive development of electrochemical energy storage. From 2031 to 2060, energy storage will serve as the core of the power system and ensure the safe and stable operation of the power system. Importantly, it is also predicted that industrial and commercial energy storage installed capacity can reach more than 7GWH in 2024. It briefly introduced the distribution and storage requirements, subsidy policies, peak and valley price differences, application scenarios and energy storage profit methods of each province. Regarding the energy storage profit model, it also mentioned that compared with independent energy storage, there are more profit models for industrial and commercial energy storage. Peak-trough price difference, energy time shift, demand management and spot trading, as well as auxiliary services and dynamic capacity increase.Challenges and Opportunities
Zhang Yulian, head of the Shandong regional company of Chintai Anneng Photovoltaic Star Household Photovoltaic Business Department, gave a special sharing on Photovoltaic Star Household Photovoltaic System Solutions, the all-star service of Photovoltaic Star for all households. He introduced that Photovoltaic Star will launch in March 2021 Officially launched, the total number of agents will reach 1,000 in 2022, with a cumulative installed capacity of 100,000 households. In 2023, it will be deployed in 25 provinces and cities and more than 1,200 counties nationwide. The overall market share will reach 4th place. At the same time, it will be deployed in 23 provinces and cities nationwide. Warehouse, more than 200,000 users. For daily application scenarios on the market, Photovoltaic Star has currently launched a variety of installation application scenarios such as Xingyang Building, Jinlingjia North and South Slopes, etc. It is also the first company in the entire market to launch north and south slope construction.Cheng Guangzeng, deputy director of Huansheng Photovoltaic Product Application Department, believes that the distributed market has higher requirements for components, which are reflected in safety and reliability, stable and efficient power generation. Photovoltaics in the distributed market are mainly used in various public buildings, commercial buildings and industrial and commercial factories. , considering the high density of people in the scene, if problems occur in the distribution, the possibility of casualties is high. In addition, we learned from the product introduction that one of the features of Huansheng's products is the high-efficiency shingled components. From the perspective of shingling technology, Huansheng is more efficient in slicing. The shingles are used to slice silicon wafers into three-piece and six-piece wafers. Mainly, in addition, Huansheng uses zero-pitch packaging, which results in higher packaging density.Huang Yankai, pre-sales technology and product support manager of Huasheng New Energy, pointed out that one of the characteristics of distributed photovoltaics is limited area, and larger wattage and higher installation rate mean an increase in area utilization. Taking the Huasheng 210 square chip heterojunction module as an example, compared with TOPCon of the same size, the power has been increased by more than ten watts, which corresponds to a 10.8% increase in installed capacity. In terms of power generation, it has a 10% increase in power generation compared to PERC and a 3.7% increase in power generation compared to TOPCon.Regarding the challenges and opportunities in the household photovoltaic market in 2024, Mao Wei, assistant general manager of GCL Sunshine Brand Center, said that from the perspective of electricity prices, market-based transactions have been implemented in many provinces, and time-of-use electricity prices have appeared in four provinces, with regional restrictions. Electricity has appeared in Henan and Shandong, leading to instability in income and greatly jeopardizing corporate profitability. As a result, market resources continue to deteriorate, grid access capacity is full, and roof resources deteriorate, which also increases the development costs of enterprises. The current high degree of marketization also puts forward higher requirements for the operation and management capabilities of enterprises. In the future, Xin Yangguang will integrate the advantages of GCL’s entire industry chain to allow agents to fully utilize their channel capabilities.Ma Jun, product manager of Shenzhen Costar Technology Co., Ltd., introduced the company’s solutions for distributed power stations, the intelligent operation and maintenance platform for distributed projects, and the main products and technical parameters of the company’s distributed projects. He said that combined with the characteristics of current distributed photovoltaic power stations, project dispersion, difficulty in operation and maintenance, diversified capacity requirements, and widespread application of large-capacity components, higher requirements have been put forward for the technical performance of inverters, and the company is constantly improving Upgrade and iterate to meet new needs in the market.Shi Zhiming, vice president of Green Energy Central (Xi'an), believes that standardized management and control should be implemented during the construction and operation of distributed photovoltaics. This can not only speed up the development and construction of projects, but is also the core cornerstone for the expansion of business scale. In addition, distributed photovoltaics are relatively scattered and difficult to operate and maintain. Standardized processes can efficiently quantify the work content of each link. Behind the advancement of standardization is the data visualization of various indicators. Through the intelligent AI analysis of the data platform, owners can have a more accurate understanding of the power station assets, and at the same time, it can also effectively improve the project income level.During the dialogue session, Yao Feng, Secretary-General of the New Energy Special Committee of the Henan Industrial Development Research Association, Liu Shengbin, Deputy General Manager of the Photovoltaic Star Household Photovoltaic Division, Yang Hui, Head of Business Development of Total Vision Northern Region, Sunshine New Energy Household Photovoltaic Business Chen Xiao, national marketing director of the Ministry of Energy, Deng Tongchao, deputy general manager of Shandong Installation New Energy Division, and Tian Yaomiao, deputy general manager of Qinghua Integrated Energy (Jinan) Co., Ltd., discussed the development path of distributed photovoltaics under the new situation.In addition, the conference also awarded China's Top Ten Influential Component Brand Awards for Distributed Photovoltaics, China's Top Ten Inverter Brand Awards for Distributed Photovoltaics, China's Distributed Household Photovoltaic System Brand Awards, and China's Distributed Photovoltaic Module Technology Innovation Brand Awards. , China Distributed Photovoltaic Model Innovation Award, China Distributed Photovoltaic Quality Inverter Enterprise Award, China Distributed Photovoltaic Excellent Household Photovoltaic Service Award.
Release Time：2024-03-06 
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